CAE next-generation

simulation

This report explains what CAE has, what is changing in the market, why this creates pressure above the device itself, and why my solution is what it is.

CAD 4.7B

Fiscal 2025 revenue [1]

CAD 19.2B

Adjusted backlog in Q3 fiscal 2026 [4]

$7.0B

Projected maritime simulation market in 2033 [50]

250+

Full-flight simulators across CAE's global network [1]

Read the case
Starting position

What CAE already has

CAE already has the scale, customer base, and training estate to build on. Civil aviation gives the company density, recurring demand, and a real device ladder. Defense shows why software, distributed rehearsal, and team-readiness problems matter more each year inside the same company.

Fiscal 2025 revenue by segment

CAE's fiscal 2025 revenue was CAD 4.7B, split 57.5% Civil Aviation and 42.5% Defense and Security [1]. This is why aviation is the best anchor. CAE already has the centres, the instructors, the device ladder, and the analytics base there [7][61]. Naval programs sit inside Defense and Security, but commercial maritime still does not.

Defense vs. civil operating margins

Defense margin
Civil margin
Defense margins climbed from 4.7% in the second quarter of fiscal 2025 to 10.1% in the third quarter of fiscal 2026. Quarterly data from CAE press releases [3][4]. This matters because collective rehearsal, distributed exercises, and team-readiness problems are easier to justify when the customer is buying mission outcome, not just recurrent compliance [11][12]. Aviation explains the continuity gap clearly. Defense shows why solving it becomes strategically important.

Training still runs on big, expensive machines in fixed locations.

That works. But not everything pilots need to practice fits neatly inside those machines.

Where CAE is exposed

CAE is exposed on two fronts.

The global simulation market across four adjacent domains totals roughly USD 41B by 2033[58][59][50][60]. CAE leads in civil flight training, holds selective defense-naval positions, and still leaves large portions of maritime, land-adjacent, and orchestration-led value to specialists. Meanwhile, the Chinese domestic ecosystem has started exporting certified Level D simulators to Europe[53].

Simulation Market by Domain, 2033 Projected

USD millions, projected to 2033. Each segment sourced independently: defense [59], flight [58], maritime [50], land [60].

CAE competes in defense simulation (USD 20.9B) and leads civil flight training (USD 8.7B). The maritime segment is the clearest external market where CAE holds only selective defense-naval positions [55] and no commercial share. The land figure is best read as an adjacent market benchmark, not proof that CAE has no land relevance.

Chinese R&D Acceleration

Illustrative R&D trajectory in simulation and VR technology, 2020 to 2025 [54]

Estimated from open-source patent database sampling. Precise counts are not publicly available.

Western (CAE, L3Harris)
Chinese (CSS, Haite, Ansheng)

CSS delivered its first EASA Level D full-flight simulator to Simaero in Paris in late 2025 [53]. The Chinese ecosystem is no longer a domestic-only concern. It is a certified, export-ready competitor.

Hardware is not enough to protect market position. A better software layer is what makes CAE products even bigger leaders in the market.

From here, the case moves from CAE's current position to the training gap, then to the user layer, the connected simulation network, and the hardware changes that follow.
01
Current Position

What is CAE now?

CAE is the largest civil aviation training company in the world. Its installed base, regulatory credibility, and global network are formidable. But the competitive layer is moving from hardware fidelity to software orchestration and readiness intelligence.

CAE has the footprint, credibility, and installed base to lead at global scale [1][2]. Over 250 full-flight simulators, 50+ training locations, and relationships with major airlines worldwide give the company a deeply entrenched position in civil aviation [1].

The problem is that the next competitive layer is no longer about visual fidelity or motion platform quality. It is the software and evidence layer that connects training nodes, senses what changed in the operating environment, and helps the instructor decide what the trainee should do next [11][12].

CAD 4.7B

[1]

FY2025 revenue

CAD 19.2B

[4]

Adjusted backlog (Q3 FY2026)

10.1%

[4]

Defense margin in Q3 FY2026

250+

[1]

Full-flight simulators across the global network

02
Maritime Gap

A $7 billion market where CAE could be more present.

The global maritime simulation market is projected to reach USD 7.0B by 2033. CAE has real defense-naval programs across multiple navies [55][56], but zero share of the commercial maritime segment that accounts for the majority of this market.

CAE is not absent from maritime. It has a selective defense-naval beachhead: the Swedish Naval Warfare Training System at Karlskrona, the UAE Naval Doctrine and Combat Training Centre (USD 113M), training for the Royal Australian Navy across four ship classes, the Canadian Surface Combatant subcontract, and active submarine pursuit through CPSP teaming agreements with both TKMS and Saab [55][56][57]. CAE also designs the MAD-XR submarine detection sensor for the MH-60R, one of the rare cases where CAE crosses from training into operational mission equipment.

But the larger commercial maritime simulation market, projected to reach USD 7.0 billion by 2033 [50], is entirely controlled by specialists: Kongsberg Maritime, Wartsila Voyage, VSTEP, and Thales [51]. Bridge simulators, engine room trainers, dynamic positioning, cargo handling, and STCW-regulated merchant seafarer training are domains where CAE has zero products, zero customers, and zero installed base.

Kongsberg is especially dangerous. Their combined coverage of commercial maritime, naval tactical training, and submarine simulation makes them a full-spectrum maritime training integrator. Wartsila is moving toward cloud-delivered simulation and AI-driven analytics, which means the commercial maritime market is already receptive to the same training-intelligence thesis that CAE pursues through Rise and Connect. If CAE does not extend its defense-naval foothold into the commercial and integration layers, it will cede the entire maritime stack to competitors who already own it [50][51].

Maritime Competitors

VendorDomain AdvantageStrategic Risk to CAE
Kongsberg MaritimeFull-mission integration across six simulation categories.Offers linked bridge and engine room simulation. Highly entrenched in allied navies.
Wartsila VoyageCloud-delivered simulation with subscription-based scale.Pursuing data-connected training thesis ahead of CAE in the maritime domain.
ThalesSubmarine control and sonar training lock-in.Binds multi-domain simulation directly to their own classified sensor systems.
03
China

What is happening in China.

The threat from China is not a single low-cost vendor. It is a coordinated ecosystem of certified manufacturers, domestic training bases, and regulation-linked operators that bridges classical airline simulation and future eVTOL training.

The most underestimated risk is the ecosystem itself: local training bases, flight schools, and certification-linked operators that build domestic scale before a national champion consolidates the market [54]. Companies like Haite have real domestic training-centre scale and Level D operations, letting them shape the market through physical footprint rather than product branding alone.

China Simulation Sciences (CSS) is the most visible export signal. CSS delivered its first EASA Level D full-flight simulator to Simaero in Paris in late 2025 [53]. With official CAAC and EASA qualification claims, CSS operates not just as a Chinese simulator vendor, but as a bridge to the next low-altitude eVTOL training market.

Three Ecosystem Pillars

Haite

Shapes the infrastructure. Holds real domestic training-centre scale and direct regulator-facing credibility. [54]

CSS (China Simulation Sciences)

Bridges the hardware gap. Expanded from China's first A320 NEO/CEO Level D FFS to integrated software platforms and eVTOL training. First EASA-qualified export delivered in 2025. [53]

Ansheng

Under-covered but positioned precisely at the growth vector: holds both certified-airliner credibility and eVTOL simulation relevance. [54]

04
Software Threat

When the training software standard belongs to someone else

BISim and other software-first players show what happens when the core simulation software belongs to someone else. The device can become the interchangeable part.

Bohemia Interactive Simulations (BISim), part of the OneArc group, shows what happens when the market rewards modular simulation software instead of closed hardware stacks [52].

With VBS4 deployed across more than 80 U.S. Army simulation centers [52], the software environment itself has become the standard training layer. The scenario engine, authoring workflow, and after-action tooling sit with the software vendor, not with the device maker.

For CAE, that is the real commercial threat. If the software standard belongs to BISim, then CAE's defense simulators risk becoming the screen and shell around someone else's training system.

If they own the scenario engine and workflow around the device, the simulator risks becoming the display, not the system.

Competitive Threat Analysis

05
Evidence Base

What peer-reviewed work actually says

Peer-reviewed work supports mixed-fidelity training, targeted instructor support, and objective-based simulator selection. It does not support vague claims that AI by itself fixes training.

Peer-reviewed work on XR training says the same thing repeatedly: different objectives need different device tiers, and not every training objective belongs in the highest-fidelity simulator [22][23].

Peer-reviewed work on biometrics and predictive assessment is useful too, but with an important limit. Eye tracking, workload signals, and machine-learning support are most credible when they help the instructor understand what happened. They are much less credible when they are sold as fully autonomous grading or generic AI magic [27][28][31].

The literature is therefore useful in a very practical way. It supports mixed-fidelity training, clearer instructor support, and networked environments for complex multi-role work [22][23][29].

What the Literature Supports

Mixed-Fidelity Progression

XR is an adjunct, not a replacement. Training should route to the right fidelity tier based on the specific learning objective, not a blanket mandate. [23][42]

Distributed LVC Environments

Complex systems-of-systems simulation, like UAM operations and unified maritime team training, requires persistent networking across device classes. [26][33]

Verifiable Readiness Evidence

Wearable biometrics and physiological state telemetry enrich the instructor's assessment picture and help trace the breakdown of pilot cognitive control under ambiguity. [27][36]

06
Current stack

What CAE already has

CAE already has serious software, operations, and connected-environment layers above the simulator. What still remains open is a persistent user and team memory across that stack, plus a focused device tier for selected sensory-failure tasks.

CAE already has the high-end device estate, the training centers, the instructors, the records systems, and a serious software stack above the simulator [1][6][7].

Rise is already a serious event-intelligence system. The defense datasheet says CAE Rise has been used in more than 50,000 unique training sessions by over 7,100 pilots across sixteen aircraft types and more than 120 simulators, with live coaching, a synthetic Instructor Pilot, automated grading, replay, eGrading and Records Manager views, biometrics, and centralized training-plan management [61][71][72][75].

Connect is already a serious operations layer. In the current business-aviation datasheet it handles reservations, user management, document exchange, and instructor access. In CAE's filings it is framed more broadly as the digital layer coordinating instructors, simulators, classrooms, and courseware across the network [1][70][74]. Training Management and Deployment System (TMDS) already covers training management, qualifications, scheduling, and administrative records [73].

CAE also already has adaptive training and connected synthetic environments in place through CORe training, TRAX Academy, distributed mission training, and synthetic environments [11][12][73][75][77][78][79][80].

Why that is still not enough

Those layers already do real work. Rise explains and coaches the event. Connect gets people and resources into the system. Training Management and Deployment System (TMDS) holds the formal record. CORe training and TRAX Academy adapt parts of the syllabus. Distributed mission training and synthetic environments network the environment itself [11][12][70][73][74][75][77][78][79][80].

However, that still is not the same thing as one persistent training memory. The user still does not have one profile that follows them for years. The instructor still does not start every session with one clean carry-forward record. The organization still does not get one lasting human and team memory across devices, sites, and mission contexts.

Where team training exposes the gap

The weakness becomes much more obvious once training stops being individual. The U.S. Naval Safety Command described repeated breakdowns in communication, situational awareness, and teamwork between bridge, combat information centre (CIC), and navigation teams [68]. The United Kingdom Defence Science and Technology Laboratory (Dstl) asked for persistent records across unrelated events and better visibility of individual performance inside collective exercises [69]. The U.S. Army and ST Engineering both point toward shared mission rehearsal environments rather than isolated trainers, while ASTi's SERA product shows the same logic in airspace training with multiple human pilots inside one simulated traffic environment [13][14][64][67][76].

That is why the missing layer cannot just connect devices. It has to keep one live exercise coherent across roles, then preserve team context, mission memory, and what actually changed from one event to the next.

Where the real gap is

The gap is not that CAE has no software above the simulator. The gap is that those software layers still hand the problem off to one another [11][12][70][73][74][75][77][78][79][80].

The real opening is the layer that keeps a real person, a real crew, and a real exercise coherent across time. That means one profile for the user, one shared state for the team while the event is running, and one carry-forward memory after the event ends [68][69][75][76].

Where the hardware gap appears

Not every important failure mode belongs at the extremes of CAE's device mix. The 7000XR remains the qualification anchor and XR devices are increasingly useful for access, familiarization, and repetition [6][7][22][23]. But sensory failure, vestibular mismatch, unusual-attitude recognition, and degraded-cue recovery still sit awkwardly between those tiers [39][44][81].

CAE's 700MR already points in the right direction for military helicopter training: a task-specific device tier built around mission conditions, not just a generic realism ladder [82]. That is why a compact electric-motion pod is believable as a first hardware shift. It is not the whole answer. It is a focused answer to a focused training problem [6][39][44][82].

Current systems vs. next step

Short version before the proposal.

SystemAlready doesDoes not solve yetWhy the next layer matters
RiseRuns the event [61][71][72][75].Lifelong user memory.The user still needs one training profile.
ConnectRuns access and coordination [1][70][74].Shared training memory.Bookings do not create continuity.
CAE stack todayRuns devices, records, and connected environments [11][12][73][79].One user and team layer across it all.The system still hands the problem off.
ProposalAdds user, network, and hardware shifts.It still has to be built.It makes the estate feel like one system.

“This is where the diagnostic case ends.”

The simulation should
remember the user

However, the first shift is not another machine.

Simulation should
remember the user.

Presenting MissionOS

Rise already explains the event. Connect already books the session. But neither keeps a persistent record of the user. The SEC filing describes a “digital thread from training to biometrics to flight data” as the goal, and that thread needs a home. MissionOS is that home.

The first change is not another device. It is that the user stops disappearing when the session ends.

LAYER 1

User layer

MissionOS as persistent profile, progression, and training memory.

The Rise datasheet shows 50,000+ training sessions assessed, 7,100 pilots tracked, live coaching, automated grading, and biometrics across 120 simulators [75]. The Connect datasheet shows reservations, user management, document exchange, and instructor access [74]. The SEC filing frames both as part of a digital thread from training to biometrics to flight data [70]. What neither product does today is keep a single persistent profile for the user that carries forward across years, devices, and sites.

MissionOS sits above that stack as the user's training passport. Rise explains the session. Connect books the session. MissionOS keeps the person [69][70][73][74][75]. A profile that accumulates real training history, year after year, becomes harder for the user to leave behind. That is why this layer matters to the user, and why it also matters to CAE.

01

Lifelong profile

MissionOS should give each user one profile that follows them for years, not one more dashboard tied to one session or one center. That profile becomes their training memory.
02

Progression and rating

The user should be able to see progression over time, a private readiness rating, and what has actually been demonstrated. That makes the record useful to the user, not only to the institution.
03

Exposure history

Each training should be recorded. The user should be able to see what they have been exposed to, what tends to catch them out, and where the pattern is changing.
04

Instructor carry-forward and next step

The next session should start with the previous instructor conclusion and a clear recommendation for what to train next. That is where MissionOS becomes useful to both the user and the instructor [69][75].

LAYER 2

Network layer

MissionOS as the bridge between isolated sessions and one connected training world.

Once MissionOS knows the user, the next step is connecting users to each other. CAE already sells distributed mission training, Live, Virtual, and Constructive environments, and synthetic environments [8][11][12][13][14][62][76][79]. What those systems do not yet do is let two trainees with different learning objectives share one live exercise where both sets of objectives are met.

MissionOS makes this possible because it already holds each user's profile, progression gaps, and next-step recommendations. An AI layer can read those profiles, generate a merged scenario that covers both trainees' objectives, and schedule them into the same session. Training with a real person on the other end changes the pressure, the realism, and the value of the exercise.

01

MissionOS profiles feed the network

Because MissionOS already holds each user's progression, exposure history, and outstanding training gaps, the network layer can match trainees whose objectives complement each other and schedule them into the same exercise [69][75].
02

AI merges the scenarios

Two trainees rarely need to practice the same thing. An AI scenario engine can read both profiles, generate a merged exercise that satisfies both sets of learning objectives, and brief the instructor on what to watch for. That is harder to do when the system does not know the users.
03

Real people change the feeling of training

Training with another real person does not feel the same as training alone or against a scripted agent. It adds stress, realism, and the sense that another person is depending on what you do [8][13][14][76].
04

The installed base is the advantage

Any company can buy or build a high-fidelity device. What is harder is taking a massive user base, connecting all those training environments, and doing something meaningful with the people already inside the system [11][12][62][76][79].

The network layer is where isolated devices start behaving like one simulation world.

LAYER 3

Hardware layer

First a new device tier. Then a post-platform moonshot.

Only after the user and network layers are clear does the hardware story make sense. First, simulation hardware becomes more deployable through a compact electric-motion pod. Later, parts of motion and physical interaction may move into field-based haptics, wearables, and mixed reality without pretending that future is ready today [81][82][83][84][85][86][87][88].

Near-term wedge

Compact electric-motion pod

01
What it is
A compact electric-motion pod for sensory-failure and degraded-cue tasks that still sit awkwardly between fixed-base repetition and qualification-grade full motion [81][82][83][84].
02
What it trains
Spatial disorientation, somatogravic illusion, unusual-attitude recovery, degraded-cue recovery, and abnormal trust in instruments or automation are the clearest first targets. The hardest thing is not routine procedure. It is what happens when the situation starts going wrong from the first second [39][44][81].
03
What it does not replace
It does not replace the 7000XR, full-flight qualification work, or the broader CAE estate. It is a focused tier for a focused training problem [6][22][23][82][84].

Long-term 2040 moonshot

Field-based haptic or wearable sensory simulator

01
Moonshot
The deeper 2040 idea is not a better servo-electric platform. It is a field-based haptic or wearable sensory simulator that shifts more of the experience into AR overlays, local haptics, intent sensing, and bounded sensory cueing.
02
Why it is plausible
Mixed-reality procedure trainers, wearable haptics, and pilot-disorientation research already exist in separate pieces. That makes the direction worth studying, even if it is not yet a finished product category [85][86][87][88].
03
What should not be claimed
The public evidence does not support claiming that non-invasive stimulation can replace motion now, or that a full post-platform simulator is ready for regulated deployment today [85][86][87][88].

User layer first.
Network layer next.
Hardware last.

Every claim stays traceable.

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